Climate Physical Risk

Premium that Markel cedes to Nephila Capital's reinsurance vehicles fell to $58.5 million in the third quarter from $162.9 million a year earlier, and to $1.1 billion year to date from $1.8 billion, which Markel attributes to lower property catastrophe rates, Artemis reports from Markel's results. Nephila's fee revenue still rose nearly 40% to $42.2 million on earlier high rates and benign catastrophe losses, and Artemis expects property-catastrophe reinsurance pricing to stay soft into 2027.

The New York Times reports that overlapping threats, largely hidden in plain sight, are killing American forests and could upend them widely. A University of Vermont study reported by WBUR in April supports the pattern: across 18 Northeast states, tree deaths from natural causes rose nearly 40% from 2009 to 2024, insects now cause almost a quarter of them, and natural deaths exceed timber harvest in every state but Maine and Virginia. Its co-author named emerald ash borer, hemlock woolly adelgid, beech leaf disease, extreme rain and drought as the combined drivers.

Tides forecast earlier in the week arrived as flooding this week, pushing seawater into streets, homes and businesses from San Diego to the San Francisco Bay Area, the Guardian reports. San Francisco set an October record on Wednesday, beating the mark set the day before, and drivers were rescued from floating cars in Marin County. NOAA records cited by the Guardian show Los Angeles has had 12 coastal flood days in 2026, more than any year in the last 50. Climate scientist Daniel Swain attributes the high water to a record marine heatwave and human-caused sea level rise, plus a coastal Kelvin wave, and expects this week's levels to be exceeded several times this winter as the strong El Niño builds.

The first damage count from last week's southwest Colorado floods puts about 540 homes damaged and some 800 structures affected in Archuleta County, the Colorado Sun reports; crews ran 40 rescue missions and brought 38 stranded people to safety, with no deaths reported in the county. About 150 of the county's 282 miles of roads are impassable, and the state transportation department is seeking $65 million in federal aid, $6.5 million of it immediately. The Colorado Climate Center recorded the San Luis Valley's wettest two days on record, and another one to three inches of rain is forecast this weekend.

A Scientific Reports study led by University of Leeds glaciologist C Scott Watson finds at least 300,000 people living in the path of potential floods in northern Nepal, south-eastern Tibet and part of India's Uttarakhand, the BBC reports. Built-up land in high-risk zones grew about 45% from 2016 to 2023, and almost 78% in glacial-lake flood zones. After August floods that killed more than 1,400 people in Nepal, its disaster agency plans to ban settlement within 15 metres of the riverbank along the Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi corridor, and Uttarakhand's cabinet approved floodplain zoning rules on 12 October.

Almost two years after the Eaton and Palisades fires, many survivors are still displaced and running out of money while long-term federal aid waits, CalMatters reports. FEMA's rental help for renters ended on 9 October, a Department of Angels survey found 28% of survivors have exhausted their displacement coverage, and the administration left Los Angeles wildfire relief out of its summer budget request. Rep. Judy Chu pressed FEMA into releasing $6.6 million to repay the state for case management, a small sum against the state's outstanding request.

President Trump granted Florida a major disaster declaration for Hurricane Isaias, WEAR-TV reports; NorthEscambia reports that the approval covers local governments while individual FEMA aid remains under review. Gov. Ron DeSantis had asked on 15 October, six days after the Panhandle landfall, and WEAR reported more than 41,000 homeowner insurance claims while the request waited.