Climate Physical Risk

The first global IUCN Red List of Ecosystems assessment of coral reefs, by more than 250 experts across 127 marine ecoregions, classifies 96% of assessed reef ecosystems as critically endangered. All 17 of Australia's reef ecosystems are in that category, with every shallow-water reef facing an extremely high risk of collapse by 2075, driven mainly by projected ocean warming; collapse here means hard corals largely give way to algae and rubble. Mishal Gudka of the University of Melbourne, the scientific lead, said much of the risk comes from warming that has not yet arrived, which leaves a window for decarbonisation and local management. The ecosystem verdict follows last week's species reassessment that found 44% of reef-building corals threatened.

NOAA's outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, released 15 October, favors wetter than average conditions across the southern U.S. from California to Florida and along the East Coast, and warmer than average across the northern tier, Alaska and much of the East. It expects drought to ease or end across most of the country, including the Southwest, the southern Plains and the Southeast, while drought develops or worsens in the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely push the jet stream south and east, tilting the odds toward stormier weather in the South, and warned that heavy rain on dry soil can bring flash floods and mudslides.

A Climate Central analysis shared with The Trace attributes roughly 2,000 shootings between 2021 and 2025, in the 100 U.S. cities with the most gun violence, to high temperatures made more likely by climate change. The method models each city's shootings against temperature and assigns no single shooting to climate change, only the aggregate. Kristina Dahl, Climate Central's vice president for science, expects the toll to grow with further warming; John Roman of NORC, who reviewed the work, said the temperature-violence link is well established. The analysis has not been peer reviewed.

FEMA denied Texas's request for federal disaster aid for this year's Hill Country floods on 28 September, and survivors in Kerr County are urging Gov. Greg Abbott to appeal before the 28 October deadline. Rebuild, a local disaster-aid group, counts 433 Kerr County homes destroyed or severely damaged, and survivors say help from donors and governments has been far smaller than after the deadly 2025 floods. "They're saying there's not enough damage," said one resident whose house took six feet of water; Abbott's office has sought tax relief for flood victims in dozens of counties.

Why it matters: A denial for a county hit by catastrophic floods two years running shows the federal backstop narrowing, leaving states and households to carry losses that insurance does not.

A 60-year-old man was killed by a falling tree near Castle Douglas in Dumfries and Galloway on Sunday as Storm Boelo, the season's second named storm in three days, brought gusts of 85mph at Machrihanish and 130mm of rain at Cluanie Inn in the Highlands. The Energy Networks Association counted 161,400 properties without power at 15:00 GMT, and 838,700 cut off at some point across Storms Austen and Boelo together. Flights, ferries and trains were disrupted, Clyde coast towns flooded, and 21 flood warnings were in force across Scotland, England and Wales.

The UK's summer averaged 16.5C, the highest since records began in 1884, with England getting 64% of its normal rain and just 10% in July, according to provisional Met Office figures cited by FreshPlaza. Growers in southern England report pumpkin crops about half of normal and fruit 50 to 60% smaller; one Suffolk farm grew about 50 pumpkins against roughly 10,000 in earlier years after heat hurt pollination. Farms in the North East fared better, and FreshPlaza notes there is no national yield figure confirming a UK-wide shortage.