Climate Physical Risk

A rapid peer-reviewed study modelled about 50,000 heat deaths across 854 European cities from June to August, nearly twice the toll of the next deadliest years this century, and attributed about 32,000 of them, roughly 65%, to human-caused warming; at the start of the century the climate share was about 40%. Malta, Italy and Hungary had the highest death rates, Naples was the hardest-hit city at 815 deaths per million, and the UK estimate is 4,354. The figures come from historical heat-mortality relationships applied to this summer's temperatures, so they are not counts of recorded deaths, a caveat an independent Madrid epidemiologist raised in the Guardian.

Berkeley Earth's September update gives 2026 about a 96% chance of becoming the warmest year on record, up from 12% in January, with an annual anomaly near 1.50 to 1.60°C above preindustrial and almost certainly above 1.5°C. September was the second-warmest on land but set a clear ocean record, and 53 countries set national September records. The Niño 3.4 index reached about 2.9°C in September, beating 2015 and 1877, and models put the peak near 4°C, most likely in December; Berkeley Earth notes the event looks similar to past very strong ones once ocean warming is adjusted for.

Why it matters: A record El Niño peaking in winter sets the season's weather and water outlook across the Americas, from a possibly wet California winter to drought risk elsewhere.

The season's first named storm left more than 19,000 homes in southern England and Wales without power on Friday, with gusts of 84mph in Jersey, fallen trees blocking rail lines and roads, ferry and flight cancellations, and school closures across the Channel Islands. Part of Brighton's ruined West Pier collapsed into the sea. Storm Boelo follows on Saturday under a Met Office amber warning for much of Scotland and the far north of England and Northern Ireland, with gusts up to 80mph on exposed coasts and flood risk from heavy rain.

Subtropical Storm Josephine, the Atlantic's tenth named storm, stayed offshore but pushed a surge of more than two feet onto North Carolina's Outer Banks, damaging and closing NC-12, the only highway to the islands, weeks after a September nor'easter closed it for a week. NOAA forecasts king tides early next week, with the full moon on October 25 and lunar perigee on October 28, bringing some of the highest water levels in a decade to the Southeast: Miami is forecast about 2.2 feet above high-tide average and Charleston just under its major flood threshold, with onshore winds and heavy rain adding compound flooding.

Arizona's Department of Water Resources has moved to intervene in Nevada's lawsuit against the Interior Department's 10-year Colorado River plan, which would cut Arizona by 760,000 acre-feet a year in 2027 and 2028, about a quarter of its allocation, against 440,000 for California and 50,000 for Nevada, while the Upper Basin states face only voluntary contributions. Arizona argues the environmental review assumed the Upper Basin would make no meaningful reduction, leaving the whole shortfall to the Lower Basin; its water director said the cuts could effectively dry up the Central Arizona Project canal. Interior responded that litigation will not create a drop of water.

September well tests show the unconfined aquifer under Colorado's San Luis Valley lost 71,921 acre-feet in a year, more than double the prior year's drop, leaving it a record 1.425 million acre-feet below its 1976 benchmark despite pumping cuts of about 100,000 acre-feet. The state engineer said the decline confirms the current Subdistrict 1 plan is not working, and uncovered wells could be shut down as early as the 2027 irrigation season. An amended plan before the water court in Alamosa would raise pumping charges to as much as $500 an acre-foot from $150, which potato growers say would put many out of business.

A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences led by Portland State geographer Andrew Fountain, using satellite data and aerial photography across six states, finds about 300 of the more than 1,450 glaciers in the western US at mid-century have functionally disappeared, and total glacier area has shrunk by a third since the 1960s, with the loss accelerating. Small, low and south-facing glaciers went fastest, and Fountain expects many more to be gone by 2100 from hotter summers and rain falling instead of snow. He describes the loss as tangible evidence of the shrinking snowpack the region drinks from.

Virginia Tech researchers, publishing in Water Resources Research, used satellite gravity data from 2004 to 2023 to estimate that the Upper Colorado River Basin lost about 4.6 trillion gallons of groundwater during the 2020–2022 drought, roughly enough to fill Lake Powell halfway, with losses accelerating since 2019 and exceeding those of the drier Lower Basin. Lead author Esther Oyedele said groundwater can no longer be treated as an unlimited backup, and co-author Susanna Werth warned the depletion feeds through to rivers and reservoirs that serve users who never pump.

Artemis has tracked $18.92 billion of settled catastrophe bond issuance in 2026, and a $1.3 billion pipeline would carry the year past $20 billion around the week of November 9, about two weeks earlier than 2025 crossed the mark. Beating 2025's record of more than $25.6 billion would need another $6.7 billion in the fourth quarter, which would be the second-largest quarter ever. Artemis credits new sponsors, maturing bonds and fresh investor cash, with pipeline deals upsizing and pricing below guidance.

Why it matters: More capital competing to carry catastrophe risk keeps pushing its price down, which eases reinsurance costs for property insurers in the most exposed regions.

The New York Times reports that President Trump and Vice President Vance have dangled FEMA money before disaster-struck states at recent campaign rallies. North Carolina, still rebuilding from Hurricane Helene, is the case in point: at a September rally in Gastonia, Trump told the state's Republican Senate nominee that he would not send further relief if the nominee lost, then said he was joking, according to The New Republic.

Why it matters: Federal disaster aid is the backstop for uninsured physical losses; making it conditional on politics shifts that risk onto states and households.

The World Bank approved $500 million for Mexico's first Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option, a three-year contingent credit line the government can draw almost immediately once a disaster or health emergency is declared. It adds a layer beneath Mexico's two 2024 World Bank cat bonds, $420 million and $175 million, and its parametric insurance, doubled to about $575 million for 2026–27. None of those triggered this year, though Hurricanes Polo and Simon and a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck, which is the gap a credit line fills.

Munich Re reported a preliminary third-quarter net profit of about €1.7 billion, against analyst consensus of €1.48 billion, and raised its full-year target to €6.6 billion from €6.3 billion. It credited below-average major-loss spending in property-casualty reinsurance and a strong investment result, in a quarter Artemis notes has seen a loss-free US hurricane season so far. Final results with the loss figures are due November 12.

Why it matters: A quiet catastrophe year swells reinsurer profits and capital, which feeds into softer pricing at the January renewals.